Trump’s Coal Push: What’s Actually Going On?

On April 8, 2025, Donald Trump signed four executive orders aimed at reviving the coal industry—labeling it “clean,” “abundant,” and “cost effective.” These orders fast-track coal leasing on federal lands, dismantle emissions rules, and challenge state-led climate policies like California’s cap-and-trade system.

The move is positioned as a response to rising electricity demand, fueled by AI data centers and domestic manufacturing. The narrative? America needs “reliable” energy—and coal can deliver.

But here’s the thing: The numbers don’t really agree.

The Market Doesn’t Want Coal

Let’s talk economics, not headlines.

Coal is in steep decline. It made up just 10% of the U.S. electricity mix in 2023, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. In contrast, renewables like wind and solar accounted for over 22%—a number that’s climbing annually. Natural gas? Still strong at 43%, and much cleaner than coal.

Globally, nearly 60 countries have slashed coal plant development since the 2015 Paris Agreement. Big players like Germany, South Korea, and the UK have phased it out entirely. Institutional capital has moved on. Asset managers like BlackRock and State Street have adjusted their portfolios accordingly.

Reviving coal might win points politically, but it’s a tough sell for long-term investment capital.

Why This Matters for Investors

For investors, the real story isn’t whether coal makes a comeback—it’s how these moves shape energy volatility, policy uncertainty, and the direction of capital flows.

Here’s how that breaks down:

1. Regulatory Whiplash is Back

Changes in environmental policy create friction for utility and energy companies. When one administration incentivizes clean energy and the next slashes those policies, investors get left trying to predict the unpredictable. That kind of uncertainty raises risk premiums and can lead to mispriced assets in the energy sector.

If you're investing in utility ETFs, infrastructure plays, or even battery tech, expect turbulence.

2. The AI Boom Is Energy-Hungry—But Not for Coal

AI data centers are driving up electricity demand. No doubt. But companies like Google, Microsoft, and Amazon aren’t lobbying for coal—they’re investing in nuclear, solar, and grid-scale batteries.

The AI sector is becoming one of the largest private purchasers of renewable energy. Microsoft alone signed deals for over 10.5 gigawatts of clean energy in 2023. The real opportunity here lies in energy infrastructure, not fossil fuels.

If you want exposure to the AI-energy overlap, think smart grids, demand-response tech, or power transmission firms.

3. Coal Exposure = Reputational Risk

Coal is increasingly considered a stranded asset. Aside from poor financial performance, many institutions are exiting fossil fuels due to ESG mandates, investor pressure, and basic math. For individual investors, being overweight on coal can carry reputational risks if you're trying to raise capital, attract clients, or build a public investing track record.

Think of it like betting on Blockbuster in the age of Netflix. Even if there's a temporary bounce, the long-term fundamentals are working against it.

So Where Should You Actually Be Looking?

If you’re investing for the future—not the past—here are a few ideas worth exploring:

Diversify into Energy Transition Plays

Look for ETFs or portfolios that focus on energy modernization, clean infrastructure, or global decarbonization. These often include:

• Grid tech companies

• Green hydrogen producers

• Renewable energy developers

• Electric utility modernizers

Keep an Eye on Policy-Sensitive Assets

Whether it’s California’s cap-and-trade market or federal tax credits for renewables, regulation shapes returns. Stay agile by tracking policy risk. Platforms like Surmount can help you diversify across strategies so your whole portfolio doesn’t hinge on a single outcome.

Watch the Industrial Comeback

Trump’s orders mention manufacturing—he’s not wrong about its growth. U.S. reshoring is real, and factory expansions mean demand for energy, materials, and logistics. But that doesn’t require a bet on coal. It’s an opportunity to consider companies enabling automation, local supply chains, and electrified transport.

Final Thoughts

Reviving coal isn’t just environmentally questionable—it’s economically backward. The real energy narrative is unfolding in the transition: smarter grids, cleaner power, and exponential demand from tech sectors like AI.

The biggest risk investors face right now isn’t missing a coal rally. It’s ignoring where innovation and capital are actually headed.

Don’t fall for nostalgia. Invest in what’s next.

The information presented is for educational purposes only and not an offer or solicitation for any specific investments. Investments involve risk and are not guaranteed. Consult with a financial adviser before making any investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.