Quantum Computing: Overhyped or the Smartest Bet of the Decade?

Every few years, a new technology comes along that promises to change everything. Most don’t live up to the hype. Quantum computing, though, might actually be the real deal.

We’re talking about a leap so big that it makes today’s most advanced supercomputers look like pocket calculators. If quantum computing delivers on its promise, it won’t just disrupt industries—it could redefine them. Finance, cybersecurity, AI, drug discovery, and materials science could all see breakthroughs at a scale that’s hard to wrap your head around.

And where there’s disruption, there’s opportunity. The question is: How early is too early to invest? And if you do want exposure, what’s the smartest way to play it? Let’s break it down.

What Is Quantum Computing (And Why Should You Care)?

Most computers today, from your phone to a hedge fund’s trading server, run on classical computing, where information is processed as bits—either a 0 or a 1. Simple, structured, and predictable.

Quantum computing, on the other hand, runs on qubits, which can be both 0 and 1 at the same time, thanks to a concept called superposition. On top of that, qubits can be entangled, meaning they can instantly influence each other, no matter how far apart they are.

If that sounds abstract, here’s the simplest way to think about it:

• A classical computer solves problems one step at a time (even if it’s doing it really fast).

• A quantum computer solves every possible outcome at the same time.

This isn’t just theoretical. In 2019, Google’s Sycamore quantum computer solved a problem in 200 seconds that would take the world’s fastest supercomputer 10,000 years to complete. IBM, Microsoft, and startups like IonQ are all pushing to commercialize the tech, while governments are investing billions into quantum R&D.

Why Investors Are Paying Attention

Quantum computing isn’t just an academic flex—it has real-world applications that could create trillions in economic value. Here’s where the biggest opportunities are shaping up:

1. Cybersecurity & Cryptography

Quantum computers could break traditional encryption methods overnight. That’s a huge risk—but also a massive investment opportunity in post-quantum cryptography solutions.

2. AI & Machine Learning

Quantum computing could supercharge AI by processing vast amounts of data at speeds no classical computer can match. Companies working on quantum-enhanced AI models could gain a serious edge.

3. Drug Discovery & Biotech

Instead of spending years testing molecular interactions in labs, quantum computers could simulate chemical reactions instantly, cutting R&D timelines in half and unlocking new treatments.

4. Finance & Investing

Hedge funds and banks are already experimenting with quantum computing for portfolio optimization, risk analysis, and high-frequency trading—which could give firms an almost unfair edge.

5. Materials Science & Energy

From next-gen batteries to superconductors, quantum simulations could drive breakthroughs in materials science, leading to new energy solutions and ultra-efficient electronics.

The bottom line? Quantum computing isn’t just about making computers faster—it’s about solving problems that were previously impossible to tackle.

Who’s Leading the Quantum Race?

If you’re looking to invest, here are the key players making moves in quantum tech:

Public Companies with Quantum Exposure:

• IBM (IBM): One of the most advanced quantum computing teams, with cloud-accessible quantum systems.

• Google (Alphabet - GOOG, GOOGL): Leading the charge in quantum supremacy with its Sycamore processor.

• Microsoft (MSFT): Focused on quantum software and cloud-based solutions through Azure Quantum.

• IonQ (IONQ): One of the first pure-play quantum computing companies to go public.

• Rigetti Computing (RGTI): A startup developing superconducting quantum computers.

• Nvidia (NVDA): Not a quantum company, but providing the GPUs and quantum simulation tools that will support the industry.

Private Quantum Startups Gaining Attention:

• D-Wave: Specializing in a unique approach called quantum annealing.

• PsiQuantum: Building a fault-tolerant quantum computer with a focus on commercialization.

• Xanadu: Developing quantum software and photonic quantum computers.

How to Invest in Quantum Computing

1. Buy Stocks in Quantum Leaders

Tech giants like IBM, Google, and Microsoft provide indirect exposure to quantum computing, while pure-play companies like IonQ and Rigetti offer more focused bets on quantum hardware.

At Surmount, we’ve developed an automated investment strategy that’s been outperforming the market by targeting leading quantum computing stocks. Our strategy dynamically adjusts exposure based on momentum, market trends, and financial performance—helping investors capture the growth potential of quantum computing without the guesswork.

2. Invest in Quantum-Focused ETFs

The Defiance Quantum ETF (QTUM) is an option for investors looking to spread their risk across multiple quantum-focused companies.

3. Venture Capital & Private Equity

For accredited investors, quantum startups present high-risk, high-reward opportunities, though these are long-term plays.

4. Watch for Government-Backed Research

Government funding is pouring into quantum research, with the U.S. National Quantum Initiative allocating billions to advance quantum technology. Keeping an eye on these grants can signal where capital is flowing.

The Risks: Is It Too Early to Invest?

1. The Tech Isn’t Fully There Yet

We’re likely 5-10 years away from large-scale, commercially useful quantum computing. Some companies could burn through cash before reaching profitability.

2. It’s Expensive & Complex

Building a quantum computer isn’t like upgrading a regular processor—it requires cutting-edge physics, cryogenics, and massive energy costs.

3. Geopolitical Risks

The U.S., China, and Europe are in a quantum arms race, meaning trade restrictions, patent disputes, and national security concerns could impact investments.

4. Hype vs. Reality

Not every company claiming to be a "quantum leader" is actually delivering. Some are riding the wave of hype without real breakthroughs.

That said, long-term investors willing to hold through volatility could be getting in on the ground floor of what could be the biggest tech disruption of the next few decades.

So… Should You Invest in Quantum Computing Now?

If you’re looking for short-term gains, quantum computing probably isn’t your best bet—it’s still in its early innings. But if you’re playing the long game, there’s a compelling case for strategic exposure to quantum-focused stocks, ETFs, or startups.

This isn’t AI or cloud computing, where businesses are already raking in profits. Instead, it’s like investing in the internet in the early 1990s—before most people understood what it could become. The upside could be massive, but it requires patience.

If quantum computing delivers, today’s early investors could be looking at the Googles, Amazons, and Microsofts of the quantum era—before the rest of the market catches on.

Disclaimer: The information presented is for educational purposes only and not an offer or solicitation for any specific investments. Investments involve risk and are not guaranteed. Consult with a financial adviser before making any investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.