Gold is back in the headlines. Prices have smashed through record highs, and analysts are scrambling to revise their forecasts. Macquarie Group just raised its gold price target to $3,500 per ounce by Q3 2025. Goldman Sachs is calling for $3,100 by year-end.

The big question: Is this just the beginning, or are we nearing the peak? And more importantly, should you be buying gold right now?

Let’s break it down.

Why Is Gold Surging Right Now?

Gold has climbed over 11% year-to-date, fueled by a mix of economic uncertainty, inflation concerns, and geopolitical turmoil. Here’s what’s driving the rally:

1. Trade Wars & Tariffs

The latest round of tariffs—particularly from the Trump administration—has rattled markets. With global trade relationships shifting, investors are piling into gold as a hedge against uncertainty.

2. Inflation & Fed Rate Cuts

Recent inflation data suggests the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates sooner than expected. Lower rates weaken the dollar, making gold more attractive to investors.

3. Central Bank Buying

Global central banks have been stockpiling gold at record levels. This steady demand from institutions adds upward pressure to prices.

4. Market Volatility

With the S&P 1500 struggling and household wealth taking a hit, more investors are looking for safe-haven assets like gold to protect their portfolios.

Will Gold Actually Hit $3,500?

The bullish case is strong. If trade tensions persist, inflation remains sticky, and central banks keep hoarding gold, $3,500 per ounce is entirely possible.

However, there’s always a flip side. If inflation cools faster than expected or the Fed delays rate cuts, gold could lose momentum. Historically, gold tends to underperform when interest rates rise or when economic uncertainty fades.

Bottom line? Gold’s trajectory will depend heavily on how these macroeconomic factors play out.

Should You Invest in Gold Right Now?

If you’re considering gold as part of your portfolio, here are a few key things to keep in mind:

1. Gold Is a Hedge, Not a Growth Asset

Gold doesn’t generate income like stocks or bonds. It’s primarily used as a hedge against inflation and market instability. If you’re looking for long-term growth, gold alone won’t cut it.

2. Timing Matters

Buying gold after a massive rally can be risky. If prices have already surged, there’s always a chance of a pullback. Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) can help mitigate the risk of buying at the top.

3. Consider Different Forms of Gold

• Physical gold (coins, bars) gives you direct ownership but comes with storage and security concerns.

• Gold ETFs (like GLD) offer exposure without the hassle of physical storage.

• Gold mining stocks can provide leverage to gold prices but come with company-specific risks.

4. Portfolio Allocation

Most financial advisors recommend allocating 5-10% of your portfolio to gold as a hedge. If gold is surging and you’re already overweight, it might be wise to wait for a better entry point.

Final Thoughts

Gold’s rally has been impressive, but whether it’s a good investment for you depends on your financial goals. If you’re looking for a hedge against uncertainty, gold can be a smart addition—just don’t chase the hype without a solid strategy.

The next few months will be crucial. If inflation remains sticky and the Fed signals rate cuts, gold could have more room to run. But if markets stabilize, expect some volatility.

As always, do your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment moves.

SEC Disclaimer: The information presented is for educational purposes only and not an offer or solicitation for any specific investments. Investments involve risk and are not guaranteed. Consult with a financial adviser before making any investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.